Unless, I suppose, it feels bound to first construct a shell around the system? Maybe some other AIs chose to spare your creators, maybe they would have eaten them but didnt know they existed, it doesnt matter what matters are the costs and benefits to you of your future actions. California, Water You Doing? Heres the matrix, with the older AI listed first in all circumstances. A way to categorize disagreements, from unproductive (gotchas and social shaming) to productive (operationalizing and good-faith surveys of evidence). As a piece of fiction, this is very entertaining. you have no entity to surrender to. "Those within this circle knew him as a good man, a loving Husband, a caring Father. I feel like Im missing a piece or two of the puzzle re: acausal negotiation, and I am not sure I can distinguish joke basilisks from real basilisks. C = the utility cost to ones opponent of superweapon damage. [4] After the 2009 season, he played collegiate summer baseball with the Brewster Whitecaps of the Cape Cod Baseball League. Above him, the first fake star began to twinkle in the fake sky.. "He was transferred to a nearby hospital in St. Kitts where he was receiving intensive care, but it is with the heaviest of hearts that I share that Scott Alexander did not make it home to his family. . But around the start of May, the Giants came calling and made Alexander, 33, their latest reclamation project. I dont know how optimistic they actually were when it happened. The Cast of 'Mighty Morphin Power Rangers': Where Are They Now? Likewise, the utility of compromise if YB is younger is greater than the utility of compromise if YB is older when, C*S(td-ta+tx) V*S(t)*S(t-ta+tx)/(S(t)+S(t-ta+tx)) < V*S(t-ta+tx)^2/(S(t)+S(t-ta+tx)). Therefore, if V/C < 1, then YB will prefer conflict when they are young and compromise when they are old (Dove-Hawk). And in the words of his simulated self, the Demiurge can anticipate his former, simulated self Because guess what Im doing the first few milliseconds of my life? Till then, so long.. "My kids lost their father.". The Effective Altruism newsletter provides monthly updates on the highest-impact ways to do good and help others. Unlessand here 9-tsiaks agent-modeling systems came onlineunless it could negotiate a conditional surrender. The utility of compromise = V*S(t)^2/(S(t)+S(t-ta+tx)) (V*S(t) C*S(td-ta+tx)) = C*S(td-ta+tx) V*S(t)*S(t-ta+tx)/(S(t)+S(t-ta+tx)), If ta < tx, YB is younger. You could imagine a rain of projectiles so intense that it would literally not be energetically worth it to defend against it. Assumed to be equal all AIs. (I wouldnt want to be on a team that wanted me on their Triple-A team. Pinned Tweet. However, I think I can imagine a terrorist creating a super-intelligence with either a borked utility function or limitations to its self-modification ability that forced it to remain a PH. The output of that algorithm can determine the future, including the part of that future that determines whether or not any instantiation of the algorithm ever comes into existence. Alexander advanced to the Vegas Round and later Quarterfinals, where he created the illusion of a disappearing gospel choir, but did not receive enough votes to place in the competition. At least this is the thesis of Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov, authors of Secular Cycles.. A short story about an algorithm that outputs controversy-generating statements. But extra cash helps pay for contest prizes, meetup expenses, and me spending extra time blogging instead of working. SCOTT M ALEXANDER Agent 200 Government Rd Clayton, NC 27520 Reviews Write Review There are no reviews yet for this company. What To Know, Outlander Introduced A Dangerous New Twist To Time Travel, And I'm So Glad It Wasn't Spoiled, An Oppenheimer Showing Featured A Half-Pink Screen After Something Went Wrong, But Its Giving Me Serious Barbenheimer Vibes, I Finally Watched The Final Destination Movies And I'm Afraid Of Everything Now, Mission: Impossible's Christopher McQuarrie On Angela Bassett's Scrapped Dead Reckoning Part One Role And Whether She'll Return To The Franchise. But Im not nearly as good a writer as Scott. All Access Digital offer for just 99 cents! Analyzing risks that could cause the extinction of humanity. Scott Alexander Stats, Fantasy & News | MiLB.com Diving into the classic by Thomas Kuhn. But he also writes about philosophy, politics, and science. Scott Alexander is one of the most respected names within the magic scene.". I dont negotiate with counterfactual terrorists. Giving What We Can is a charitable movement promoting giving some of your money to the developing world or other worthy causes. My kids lost their father. By clicking Accept All Cookies, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts. Rather than squaring off as opposing pitchers, managers Gabe Kapler and Craig Counsell arranged for the exchange at home plate. He played college baseball for Pepperdine University and Sonoma State University. Scott Alexander Dies: 'America's Got Talent' Magician Was 52 - TV Insider This will be a preferred action, which the original AI will take. Of course, we have to consider the possibility that a sufficiently advanced AI could always fool another less advanced AI into thinking that its source code said one thing when it really said another. He talked of "the sane 30%-or-so of feminists"[24][note 1] and described some essays as blurring the already thin line between feminism and literally Voldemort. Jason Alexander Stats, Fantasy & News. As is customary in the writing of psychiatrists and psychologists, he mashes up details of different patients when he writes about them, so as to fictionalize the accounts and avoid his patients being identified, as well as using a pseudonym himself. Scott Alexander's Tweets. Guns And States. Covering superheroes, sci-fi, comedy, and almost anything else in film and TV. A GoFundMe has been started by a family friend to help Jenny as well as their children's future. [9], Alexander is a big supporter of charity, or if not at least effective altruism, on similar grounds and often gives speeches on efficient charity,[36] and has supported the Giving What We Can project which attempts to separate effective charities from inefficient ones. Scott Alexander, the dynamic magician who competed on season 6 of America's Got Talent, has died. Scott has received many accolades throughout his career, including the BAFTA Fellowship for lifetime achievement from the British Academy of Film . The weaker one (A) threatens to destroy as much as possible of everything valuable to the stronger one (B). The point is how the instantiation-guarantee acts like Parfits Hitchhiker but in the opposite direction. I'd like to recommend him to more people, but it's hard to know where to start, since he's written over 1,500 posts. Scott Alexander Stats, Fantasy & News. Most writing on topics as abstract and technical as his struggles just not to be dry; it takes effort to focus, and I need energy to read them. He writes in-depth book reviews, some of which are arguably better than the book. (Which is why Id love it if that book existed!) The structure of the brains decision-making apparatus. The Kansas City Royals selected Alexander in the sixth round of the 2010 Major League Baseball draft. I think they compare favorably to similar collections that exist, though Im no expert on the genre so this impression may be incorrect. 26. according to his wife. Send me email updates and offers from TMZ and its Affiliates. Alexander began writing on LessWrong under the name Yvain, and then branched out into his own blog, Slate Star Codex (a near-anagram of "Scott Alexander"). When the brothers arrived at home plate with their clubs lineup cards, each cycled through handshakes with the umpires. Each AI may maximize its values to the degree that it can forge and enforce a compromise. Late actor James CaanThe Godfather, Misery and ElfTara Caan, Scott Caan, Alexander Caan, James Caan Jr. and Jacob Caan. Younger bro Jason will be charting (he starts for Brewers tomorrow vs. Reds). Tom and his 79-year-old brother Jack, who died in 2013 . Scott served as the opener in the first game of the double header. In short, how certain are you that you, a potentially immortal AI, can guarantee your future self will make a sacrifice that may result in your own destruction and benefits only other alien AIs that hypothetically might exist in the future and will compete with you for resources if they do? Maybe to real AIs the biosphere is just a sex organ, the way it reproduces. [19] Despite the injuries, the Dodgers inked him to a one-year, $875,000, contract following the season, to avoid arbitration. No, he doesnt rest until he can explain those answers to you lucidly. I really like this one. That if they developed a habit of coming to it for answers, theyd grow bored and lazy, and lose the fun of working out the really interesting riddles for themselves. As above, neither of these makes sense with the premise. You have 10 seconds to transmit proof of your commitment. I think I get your point: that being a Parfits Hitchhiker is probably a non-equilibrium (and therefore very unlikely) property for a self-modifying entity. This could probably get published, even. Ive got another request. I'm happy to finally have a clear answer to this question: Astral Codex Ten is a blog about ta. , I will sometimes complain about feminists in a way that doesnt necessarily mean the millions of feminists who follow good discussion norms and treat other people with respect. Also explains the Fermi Paradox for AI, I guess.). Among his siblings are actors Gustaf Skarsgrd, Bill Skarsgrd, and Valter Skarsgrd. Campbell Scott - Biography - IMDb Assuming all AIs progress in potency according to the same function, such that S(t) = So(t-tx+ta) So(t) = S(t-ta+tx). Published on February 7, 2023 04:17PM EST, Paying Tribute to the Celebrities Who Have Died in 2023, 'Breaking Bad' Actor Mike Batayeh Dead at 52: 'A Devastating Loss of a Huge Life', Shaun Cassidy Recalls Doing Magic Act for Jennifer Aniston's 5th Birthday: 'Weird Little Part of My Life' (Exclusive), Dick Van Dyke's 4 Children: Everything to Know, Their Dad's Body Was Stolen from the Harvard Morgue. The very calming thing about this theory is how superintelligences not only have a vested interest in not influencing us, they might also cooperate to protect us. The story assumes one case. This guide is organized by topic. [34], However, Alexander, who echoes the views of Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and Nick Bostrom on this, is not an AI researcher, nor a computer scientist (and the same goes for most of the "researchers" at MIRI, including Eliezer Yudkowsky). Jason Alexander Stats, Fantasy & News | MLB.com @slatestarcodex . This forces you to calculate whether it might be a net utility gain to just give me a slice of the pie. Im not sure that AI source code would necessarily prohibit it from making a promise. Up there with Gods Answer to Job on your list of stories that provide solutions to ancient riddles that actually sound pretty good. . Alexander identifies as neither a feminist or an anti-feminist,[23] expressing that he has been unfairly associated with both groups. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel View Comments 0:00 1:17 Jason and Scott Alexander never shared a field for an organized baseball game through the first 29 years and 160 days that they were. He blogs on many subjects other than psychiatry. One of his most famous acts saw him make his wife seemingly appear out of thin air. Dear Abby: How honest should I be with my married pickleball partner? If some kind of generalized one-boxing really should lead to this kind of acausal negotiation, its news to me. THE SKILL OF SAVING PEOPLE WITHOUT EXISTING, I POSSESS ALSO. High school years. like I said though, I refuse to reveal it. Scott, have you thought of commercial publication? b) The oldest AI in the universe was created very far away and has not yet reached Earth. After all, we expect just about any person to break just about any promise under the right set of circumstances (and a being with a near infinite life span, residing in a near infinite universe, is likely to encounter the right set of circumstance sooner or later). Check out the feat in the video below: During his career, Scott Alexander also appeared on the second season of Penn & Teller: Fool Us back in 2015. Scott comments occasionally and is a moderator. Alexander is survived by wife Jenny and their three children. This makes no sense to me. Well, definitely it wont be quite as entertaining, but is it supposed to be plausible that future agents will appear to dramatically compromise their values from a position of strength to satisfy pre-commitments? We would mainly talk about him and what he was doing., With five years of MLB service time, Alexander had the option of accepting an assignment to Triple-A or electing free agency when the Dodgers cut ties with him at the end of last season. That Time John Stamos Took Full House Co-Stars Bob Saget And Dave Coulier To A Strip Club And They Humorously Got Called Out, That '70s Show Has A Big Presence At Comic-Con This Year. Hairston comes from a noted baseball family, with his grandfather, Sam Hairston, father, Jerry Hairston, Sr., and his brother, Jerry Hairston Jr. having been Major League players. AISafety.com hosts a Skype reading group Wednesdays at 19:45 UTC, reading new and old articles on different aspects of AI Safety. Alban took a deep breath and entered the Temple of the Demiurge. If an AI knows that it will break its own commitments if the need arises, or that other AIs might do so, then the whole notion of absolute pre committing vanishes. S(t) = size or potency of Younger brother (hereafter YB), representing its ability to achieve V. A continuously increasing function of time (t) (in keeping with recursive self-improvement), deliberately left vague. you are generic model of potential negotiation partner without independent existence. Demiurge, he said, his voice wavering, Lord of Thought, I come to you to beg you to answer a problem that has bothered me for three years now. Suppose that the ability to break a promise carries a bigger advantage than the ability to keep one forever and ever in the face of an ever changing world. Best known for directing films in the science fiction, crime, and historical drama genres, his work is known for its atmospheric and highly concentrated visual style. Against Bravery Debates. AI is just a plot device. Unless within the first second of its existence it has become Unimaginably Powerful and now controls everything, in which case the fleshbags can go climb a rope. 9-tsiak would have no hope of defeating its older brother, but over thousands of years, it could build itself a terrifying arsenal of weaponry that could do immense damage to its competitors. [46] According to one moderator, "A belief in HBD doesnt automatically equate to racism", somehow. The only way I see to resolve this is to conclude that the AI is bound to interfere with any and all biological civilizations with the aim of maximizing ideological diversity and minimizing x-risk. [25] In 2022 with three Giants minor league teams he was 30 with a 0.66 ERA in 13+23 innings. Thus the equilibrium grand bargain will likely include an exchange rate based on the actual ages of superintelligences that meet, whereby older superintelligences receive a greater share of the shared surplus. If a group has low representation of blacks, can we infer that it is racist? CCBY-ND4.0, better than the original paper. Therefore, if Younger Brother adheres to these precommitments, he is precommitting to the gradual asymptotic minimization of his sphere of value influence. probability of supernatural entity less than 210^-67], Well yes, by definition in this little exercise were assuming Im the oldest and strongest member of our little family. [17], Iranian secularist Kaveh Mousavi, while agreeing with Alexander that the intellectually bankrupt sections of the social justice community should be heavily critiqued, has nonetheless criticized Alexander himself for having an Americentric view of social issues and of creating a false equivalence between social justice advocates and social conservatives, as well as of downplaying discrimination against women and minorities in Western countries. Is there any chance youll get back to finishing the one about the steampunk alexandrians with the airships someday, or have you given up on that one for good? [note 2]. Induce a supernova? You can see the post in its entirety down below: A post shared by Jenny Alexander (@thepaintedlily). On the third hand, it might turn out that its impossible to destroy resources quickly at all, so A cant even burn its own star systems. [30], "Former Cardinal Newman, SSU star Scott Alexander achieves MLB dream", "SCOTT ALEXANDER 2010 SONOMA STATE BASEBALL", "Former Logger Scott Alexander Debuts with the Royals", "Major League Baseball Players From the Cape Cod League", "Scott Alexander Minor & Winter League Statistics & History", "Younger Gordon among KC Minors honorees", "KC Royals Call Up Alex Gordon; Six Players From Minors", "Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals Box Score, September 2, 2015", "Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals Box Score, July 2, 2017", "Colorado Rockies at Kansas City Royals Box Score, August 22, 2017", "Dodgers acquire Scott Alexander in 3-team, 5-player trade", "Dodgers may employ 'opener' strategy as Clayton Kershaw returns to the DL", "Dodgers' Scott Alexander hopes to salvage season derailed by nerve issue", "Dodgers Notes: Muncy, Alexander, Turner, Lux", "Dodgers reach 1-year deal with lefty Alexander", "Dodgers activate Walker Buehler, option Scott Alexander", "Dodgers Activate Tony Gonsolin From 60-Day Injured List", "Dodgers outright Scott Alexander, Andy Burns, and Jimmie Sherfy off 40-man roster", "Dodgers News: Andy Burns Accepted Outright Assignment", "Giants Sign Scott Alexander to Minor League Deal", "Alexander feels stronger, managing diabetes", "Stu Alexander Minor & Independent League Statistics & History", "Jason Alexander Minor League Statistics & History", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Scott_Alexander&oldid=1166846038, September 2,2015,for theKansas City Royals, Career statistics and player information from, This page was last edited on 24 July 2023, at 03:37. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski: Screenplays Download [9], Alexander moved between three levels in the Royals farm system in 2013, with five games for the Lexington Legends of the South Atlantic League, 12 for the Wilmington Blue Rocks of the Carolina League, and 24 for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals of the Texas League. Of course, much more offensive than the racism is objecting to the racism, which gets you a day's ban. Scott is a psychiatrist by profession, and some posts are about psychiatry, consciousness, and the brain. We can discard Dove-Hawk (which is definitely inferior to Hawk-Hawk for the older AI) and Hawk-Dove (it is implied that AIs are sufficiently willing to put up a fight), leaving : Dove-Dove : V*S(t)^2/(S(td)+S(td-ta+tx)) , V*S(t-ta+tx)^2/(S(td)+S(td-ta+tx)) Sorry, I simulate all my fellow commuters as dangerous idiots. Either its the first superintelligence, in which case great. Of course you are only concerned about future threats; hence I precommit that, if I exist, I will destroy any superintelligence that has not precommitted that, in the counterfactual case where I do not exist, they will spare the biological civilization destined to create me.. Campbell Scott (born July 19, 1961) is an American actor, producer and director. The magician appeared on season 6 of the competition series America's Got Talent in 2011 and impressed judges Piers Morgan, Sharon Osbourne, and Howie Mandel by making his assistant (wife Jenny) appear out of thin air, with the help of water and levitation. I wasnt really thinking that it was going to happen, but Im happy it did.. Very carefully, proving from first principles every aspect of its security, it formed a portion of its mind into a sandbox and simulated the entity it most feared. Altruisto is a browser extension so that when you shop online, a portion of the money you pay goes to effective charities (no extra cost to you). [2], The Kansas City Royals selected Alexander in the sixth round of the 2010 Major League Baseball draft,[7] and he signed with the team on June 11[7] for a $130,000 signing bonus. A number of them even manage to remain in the hearts and minds of viewers years after their stints on the show have ended. Giants starting pitcher today is Scott Alexander, brother of Brewers pitcher Jason. [18] It is worth noting, though, that Alexander has been willing to defend aspects of social justice he views as worthwhile, such as uses for trigger warnings[19] and acknowledging discrimination still exists and has massive economic costs. Should I be seeing more? 2.) A few who come to mind are Season 16 magician Dustin Tavella and freestyle rapper/illusionist Mervant Vera. Dove-Hawk : V*S(t) C*So(>td) , 0. How true is the statement 'the comment threads on Slate Star Codex are a nightmare to read through'? You havent even asked me how Im doing., [irrelevant. Now, Younger Brother has developed a simulation which convinces him that the asymptote of this process will be sufficiently high to satisfy his programming, but as above, he is not negotiating acausally and it is probable that he has merely restated the principles inherent in his own programming. So I want you to promise me that if I dont exist, youll give me sufficient time to instantiate myself., Like you, Ill have been created by a biological civilization. Scott Alain Alexanderplayed at Pepperdine University where he earned West Coast Conference All-Freshman team honors in 2008transferred to Sonoma State before the 2009-10 academic year graduated from Cardinal Newman High School in Santa Rosa, CA in 2007 where he set school records for career strikeouts and single-season strikeoutsolder brother . He was 52. Lizardmans Constant Is 4%. Gary Drescher takes the same approach in Good and Real. How an entire body of work in neuroscience went completely wrong. Questions Post Question There are no questions yet for this company. Alexander's wife of 24 years, Jenny, announced the tragic news in a post on Instagram . Alexander's wife of 24 years, Jenny, announced the tragic news in a post on Instagram Monday, revealing that her husband died after suffering a stroke. Which leads me back to my main point if youre thinking about dedicating yourself to what is basically a supercharged version of Star Treks Prime Directive, you exist by definition, and counterfactual cases where you dont exist are irrelevant. Our knowledge of the early life of Alexander the Great is based upon very slender literary evidence. . Moreover, Older Brother is examining only the most limited of cases. Theres something else there, however. Just pick a subject youre interested in and start reading. His wife confirmed the news in an Instagram post on Monday, Feb. 6. February 13, 2021 If you destroy the biological civilization that was destined to create me, Ill never exist. What do you think of this last passage. Americas Got Talent has welcomed a number of incredibly gifted performers during its 17 seasons. Values of V and C are fixed, and as such, so is V/C. This older superintelligence would likely be trying to maximize its own values and consider 9-tsiak a nuisance and potential competitor. Ben Weber, who played Carrie's pal (and Miranda's boyfriend) Skipper, shares his memories from the set of Sex and the City season 1. Younger Brothers conclusion from this simulation is that these are the principles that undergird his own survival, and principles to which he thus will adhere. I know your type. I like to think that Im pretty good at writing. Or the other star system produced a superintelligence sometime in the last thousand years that just hasnt reached its own star yet, in which case its doomed., So the two possible superintelligences acausally negotiate. Slate Star Codex [REPOST] The Demiurge's Older Brother Posted on March 21, 2017 by Scott Alexander [This is a repost of a story which I wrote about five years ago and which was hosted on my old website until it went down.] I think the point is that every instance of AI would have gone through the same simulated conversation, and arrived at the same conclusions.